It is my expectation that two things will have a high probability of occurring sometime between now and 2026-2031: The taxes on dividends and capital gains will increase, and interest rates will be at a higher rate than they are right now. Although I echo and agree with the general frustration that any capital gains or dividend tax is essentially a “double tax” on the shareholder who already paid a ~35% tax on the same earnings at the corporate level, I also recognize that this view does not represent the pulse of the republic.
From a historical perspective, dividend taxes tend to settle somewhere in the 30% range, and I would plan accordingly (this prediction will intensify as Peter Drucker’s prediction of an hourglass America due to technology advancements becomes more realized.) I also expect thirty-year Treasury bonds to settle somewhere in the 5% to 6% historical range, compared to … Read the rest of this article!